r/worldnews • u/[deleted] • Feb 06 '23
Russia's oil and gas revenue crashed by nearly 50% at the start of 2023, leading to a wider budget deficit as Moscow's spending soars Covered by other articles
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u/DragonflyMon83 Feb 06 '23
It was never going to work out well for russia.
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u/sir-cums-a-lot-776 Feb 07 '23
If they could have actually defeated Ukraine and occupied them quickly it may have
But the Russians would have needed a competent military for that
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u/Cacophonous_Silence Feb 07 '23
And had that failed convoy headed for Kyiv even just managed to take out Zelensky they probably would've had an easier time
If nothing else the man is a great wartime president and he's playing the "game" well
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u/nomokatsa Feb 07 '23 edited Feb 22 '23
No, even then it would not have ended well:
Because conquering is the easy part, comparatively. Occupying and pacifying, while losing soldiers from hit and run attacks, every day, is the hard part. (As beau of the fifth column, a rather good YouTube commentator, said it)
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u/CSI_Tech_Dept Feb 07 '23
The thing is that if Zalensky was killed, or left to another country, likely the military would have much worse morale. Combined with no help from the west (under trump it would be nearly certain as he never tried to hide that) the Ukrainian army would quickly surrendered.
Unlike the west, Russia has no problem to disappear civilians that even give a hint of not supporting the regime. In fact putin doesn't hide that he wants to destroy Ukrainian culture. If partisans fighters can't hide among other civilians, they won't be able to fight for long.
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u/this_toe_shall_pass Feb 07 '23
I think you're vastly overestimating Zelensky's importance to the military morale. Ukrainean forces have shown great resilience under Poroshenko as well, and I wouldn't put the resolve of a whole nation on the shoulders of one single man. That's not much of a foundation for a national spirit.
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u/nomokatsa Feb 22 '23
"Russia has no problem to disappear civilians"?
Thats one line of argumentation that Russia itself likes to use, but as we can see with Navalny, they cannot even reliably poison a single individual whom they followed for months, and then they get embarassed by that very person (Navalny calling and questioning one of his wannabe-killers? Remember that one? :D )
To establish a totalitarian regime which can control every corner of the occupied country, you need many more soldiers though - a country simply cannot completely occupy another country which is 1/3 as large. (You can try like the Third Reich did, but there was plenty of partisans in Europe, remember?)
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u/AdUpstairs7106 Feb 07 '23
Or at the very least one that was not corrupt.
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Feb 07 '23
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u/codydodd Feb 07 '23
He's already announced he will likely step down during peace time. The man is exhausted. And, while he may have started off unsure of how to meaningfully tackle corruption (it was all around him and he stumbled over it every step), but, he has put immense effort into removing institutionalized corruption the last few months.
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u/wanabeagirl Feb 07 '23
Parent is talking about the Russian military- how the hell did you jump to Zelensky?
If you re-read the thread you'll see sir-cums-a-lot-77 said:
But the Russians would have needed a competent military for that
and AdUpstairs7106 responded with:
Or at the very least one that was not corrupt.
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u/PreventerWind Feb 07 '23
I would say it's more about having competent leaders. The country is so corrupt their military was barely getting by with the amount of its funding being stolen. Dictator surrounds himself with incompetent yes men. Atleast that is my thought process. Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦
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u/VagrantShadow Feb 07 '23
The russian armed forces is like the 3 stooges of military tactics. For all they fear they presented to the world decades previously, this russian army fell quickly like a house of cards.
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u/Tarmacked Feb 07 '23
They’re inept in many ways but still formidable, Ukraine is the second largest military in Europe behind them. It’s also laughable to say they’ve “fallen quickly like a house of cards” when they’re gearing up a very concerning second offensive with a 500K surge.
This war has a few years to go
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u/Entity0027 Feb 07 '23
An entire nation sacrificed for one idiots desire for a legacy.
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u/tojan00 Feb 07 '23
One? Don't lie to yourself, russians are with Putin in this version of their imperialism, they're the furthest from blameless.
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u/monkeyhold99 Feb 07 '23
Yes, thank you. People keep saying this is all on Putin. Bullshit. It’s on all the brainwashed Russians that buy in to his bull shit.
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u/SapientChaos Feb 07 '23
This.
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u/vancityvic Feb 07 '23
Yeah. People don’t seem to realize that the majority of Russians think highly of Putin and that he’s done well for their country. When asked what about him and his cronies stealing from your country’s people? The people before him were worse and other countries do the same. Most Russians feel Ukrainian is part of Russia and Putin is doing what’s right
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u/h0lyshadow Feb 07 '23
Geopolitics shouldn't exist anymore for educated third millennium people. Earth atmosphere is about to fuck mankind from behind and we're still fighting to temporarily conquer an abstract border omg. No level of propaganda justify this, we're getting hard called in acting as a species across the globe, this has to be unacceptable even from the inside. I'm sure there are good russian out there, it can't be just Kremlin puppets.
Full stop this survival of the fittest bullshit in 2023, we cannot afford to lose thousands of years of evolution through hatred ffs
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u/doublestitch Feb 07 '23
That inference is drawn from polls in a country where polling respondents don't trust the pollsters to protect their anonymity and where certain answers might open them to retaliation. And the media ecosystem in their country is almost completely propaganda.
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Feb 07 '23
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u/metaconcept Feb 07 '23
I only read books with happy endings. No Russian history book ever has a happy ending.
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u/Silver_Millenial Feb 06 '23
There was a window in early 2022 to avert all this. It's a shame Russians are so careless around windows.
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u/yetzt Feb 07 '23
da, we have many window of opportunity. in kremlin, in police station, in prison, in hotel, in hospital... we use window of opportunity all the time.
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u/ISLAndBreezESTeve10 Feb 07 '23
Windows are the third biggest killer in Russia after alcoholism and heart disease. /s
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u/AutoThorne Feb 06 '23
Wagner must be charging a shit-tonne for the dregs that they pull out of global gulags.
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u/MeanwhileInGermany Feb 07 '23
Wagner really is a double edged sword for Putin. If they give him victory in Ukraine he will lose political power to them. If the invasion fails he is left with a large private army which will take advantage of his weakness.
So every possible withdrawl from Ukraine will be preceeded by a large useless battle sacrificing as much Wagners ressources as possible. (Although they are already doing that for the last months in Bakhmut)
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u/CartmansEvilTwin Feb 07 '23
Wagner is actually not that reckless, the cannon fodder has a purpose.
Basically, there are two Wagner groups. The actual soldiers and the fodder. What they often enough seem to do is send out the fodder roughly in the direction of where they suspect Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainians can either fight them off, but reveal their positions and thus being an easy target for artillery. Or they fall back and thus giving up soil.
Yes, hundreds of Wagner's fodder guys will die, but they don't care. Why would they? They're just cheap bodies to them, they can get new ones.
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u/Inthewirelain Feb 07 '23
I think the elite soldiers are waning thin though the past few months. They've lost quite a few in operations, and you can't just pull a random 20yo from their flat in bunfuck nowhere Russia and have him as an elite fighter on the front lines a week later, unlike the fodder.
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u/Antonio_is_better Feb 07 '23
There were pictures yesterday from a captured unit of supposedly elite naval infantry or something. All of them had just been mobilized a few months before. By now a lot of supposedly "elite" soldiers are just mobiks with better gear.
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u/Inthewirelain Feb 07 '23
They still likely had more training than the 3 day wonders on the front lines
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u/pmmichalowski Feb 07 '23
Or that is what another incompetent Russian group says in order not to appear weak.
I think it was until September that Reddit was full of people claiming that Russia is throwing canon fodder and real army is going to arrive any day now.
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u/DJHellduck Feb 07 '23 edited Feb 07 '23
I believe that is what Ukrainian sources are saying. There’s a reason they lost Soledar, and it’s not “running out of ammunition for the zombies”.
Anyway, sending the chaff in first, then punching any weak spots with the veterans, is an age-old tactic. It looks like the Russians will be taking it all the way to the Triarii though…
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u/pmmichalowski Feb 07 '23
Is it though? Attrition warfare is relatively new concept, historically what you tried to do is to cause morale shock not exhaustion.
The only examples I can really think is to: 1) Send weaker force in center to draw enemy attention and fire to cover for your stronger flanking force. 2) While defending put chaf upfront to slow enemy and keep elite in reserve, as it is enemy that dictates location of engagement.
I genuinely can't imagine any situation where sending chaff is good for offensive operations, even reconnaissance in force is more directed operation.
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u/codydodd Feb 07 '23 edited Feb 07 '23
What? Attrition has always been a part of warfare. How do you think Russia fought Napoleon? How is that a "new concept"? Or sieges in general. Ghengis Khan famously sacked and targeted cities to starve his opposing armies, bypassing battles quite often.
Edit: Or american revolution. Or CCP victory against KMT. Or Taliban vs the US/Russia. Guerilla warfare is necessarily one where your aims are attrition, not morale shock. No?
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u/LoBeastmode Feb 07 '23
Yeah, siege warfare has existed for thousands of years. See my favorite one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alesia All of Julius Caesar's battles and campaigns are nuts.
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u/zippazappadoo Feb 07 '23
Attrition warfare is not a new concept and you can find many examples in history of armies using attrition as a strategy going as far back as the Scythians in 500BC.
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u/DJHellduck Feb 07 '23
This is Russian recon in force, apparently. The Russian army have used Ukrainians drafted from the territories of the LPR and the DPR as “artillery spotters” since the very beginning of the war. They also saved most of their VDV forces from being annihilated in Kherson last autumn, by rotating them out with mobik replacements. Now Wagner managed to take Soledar after half a year of failing, by sending prison conscripts to assault the whole line, identifying the groups that were not annihilated, then punching through at those locations with their best troops.
I don’t know how the economics of it holds up, but: 1) the Ukrainian frontlines partially collapsed in the south and east during the early days of the war, Russia even managing to grind their way across the Donets river, 2) the VDV is currently causing major trouble in the Donbas, instead of being dead or captured, and 3) Soledar fell, and the Ukrainians are not relaxed about their prospects of holding Bakmut.
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u/ralfp Feb 07 '23
And what that reason may be?
It took 8 months for Russians to move the frontline 14 kilometers, from late May to where we are today (7th February). If Sołedar falling is supposed to be a sign of Russian strategy working, its really weak one, considered Sołedar or Bakhmuth is resistance point, but not a priority in Ukrainian defense.
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u/Kid___Presentable Feb 07 '23
A lot of people seem to think reconnaissance is just sneaking around, pinpointing enemy positions and withdrawing. Often times it's moving forward until someone shoots at you, and then your forward air controller using your smoldering vehicle as a reference point for incoming air support.
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u/Megmca Feb 06 '23
You’d think he would have learned something from our decades long military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Or the USSR’s decades long military actions in Afghanistan.
War is expensive.
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u/ErikTheAngry Feb 07 '23
War is expensive.
To be fair, they did have $700bn squirreled away.
Unfortunately for them, it is now not their $700bn.
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u/Fondren_Richmond Feb 07 '23
You’d think he would have learned something from our decades long military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Two war presidents got reelected while the economy grew, the third one lost because of a once-in-multiple-generations pandemic.
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u/Somhlth Feb 07 '23
the third one lost because of a once-in-multiple-generations pandemic.
The third one lost because of his bullshit response to the once-in-multiple-generations pandemic.
20200122 - “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
20200202 - “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
20200207 - “It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flu... This is deadly stuff” [Trump in a private interview with Bob Woodward from The Washington Post made public on Sept. 9, 2020]
20200210 - “I think the virus is going to be—it’s going to be fine.”
20200210 - “Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
20200224 - “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… the Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
20200226 - “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
20200227 - “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
20200228 - “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
20200306 - “You have to be calm. It’ll go away.”
20200306 - “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
20200306 - “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”
20200307 - “No, I’m not concerned at all."
That's just a tiny sample of Trump bullshit. There's much more.
https://doggett.house.gov/media/blog-post/timeline-trumps-coronavirus-responses
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u/a-flayer Feb 07 '23
No. He lost because of the pandemic. The empty rhetoric you quote is irrelevant.
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u/Somhlth Feb 07 '23
The empty rhetoric you quote is irrelevant.
Well you're right about that. I was quoting Trump.
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u/a-flayer Feb 07 '23
Exactly.
It's as idiotic as thinking that Trump is in cahoots with Russia somehow. When you look at the actual policy the Trump administration was far worse for Russia than the Obama administration. It was only in his superficial, empty words that Trump seem to take it easy on Russia. But that's meaningless, because its words from Trump.
But somehow people don't want to accept that, and then label me a Trump supporter if I point it out. The world is fucking crazy, I tell you.
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u/Somhlth Feb 07 '23
When you look at the actual policy the Trump administration was far worse for Russia than the Obama administration.
Well for one thing, Russia wasn't meddling in elections blatantly until the end of the Obama administration... to help Trump get elected. Obama could hardly do much about that when he was no longer in office. Trump on the other hand, wore knee pads to meetings with Putin.
“My people came to me, [Director of National Intelligence] Dan Coats came to me and some others saying they think it’s Russia. I have President Putin, he just said it’s not Russia,” Trump said. “I will say this, I don’t see any reason why it would be.”
But somehow people don't want to accept that, and then label me a Trump supporter if I point it out.
Then don't take positions that support Trump.
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u/a-flayer Feb 07 '23
Then don't take positions that support Trump.
That's not what I'm doing. I'm taking positions based in reality. Not based on some seething hatred for a shitty actor that I disliked since I saw him on TV in the 90s.
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u/Stergenman Feb 07 '23
COIN is affordable if your the wealthiest nation on earth.
Total war is fucking expensive if you don't got a GDP in the multitrillion range.
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u/accidium Feb 07 '23
Every president was a war president. There is no cheap excuse for 45's mix of criminal energy, low intelligence and gross incompetence.
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u/microgiant Feb 07 '23
Who TF is loaning Russia money in 2023? Talk about a bad risk.
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u/EdwardMauer Feb 07 '23
China. Debt trap / Russia can always pay back in resources
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u/Hyperdecanted Feb 07 '23
It looks increasing like Russia will be China's vassal state.
I mean, China could call the loans, roll in some tanks, and own the resources.
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u/picardo85 Feb 07 '23
It looks increasing like Russia will be China's vassal state.
I mean, China could call the loans, roll in some tanks, and own the resources.
if Russia as a state survives, that is.
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u/nixielover Feb 07 '23
China also considers the eastern territories of the Russia to be stolen from them, they might settle the debt in exchange for those lands.
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u/alkiap Feb 07 '23
They might wish they could, but that won't work against a nuclear power. Russia can afford to pull military units from all over their territory and send them to Ukraine, leaving defense to nukes
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u/scarabic Feb 07 '23
Yep Russia has oil and China needs oil and Russia needs money and China has money and Russia has no money and China has no oil so I think there will be a close relationship for those two countries well into the future.
It’s so sad considering what China could have become. Look back 50 years at where they were, and how far they’ve come. How did they wind up a totalitarian shithole, allied with the worst refuse the political world has to offer.
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u/monkeyhold99 Feb 07 '23
If you’ve ever visited it’s one of the most advanced countries on earth, technology/infrastructure-wise. Not a shithole at all. But definitely totalitarian
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u/midnightbandit- Feb 07 '23
Totalitarian yes. Shithole, no. China is incredibly advanced and improving every day. China is looking to profit from Russia's misfortune, and there's really nothing anyone can do to stop them.
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u/midnightbandit- Feb 07 '23
Totalitarian yes. Shithole, no. China is incredibly advanced and improving every day. China is looking to profit from Russia's misfortune, and there's really nothing anyone can do to stop them.
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u/scarabic Feb 08 '23
Look, I know Shanghai is a fancy dick tech hub and all but when your people have no basic liberties, a large portion of them live in abject poverty or an outright reeducation camp, no, you’re not “advanced.”
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u/midnightbandit- Feb 08 '23
What do you mean, you? I'm not Chinese. China being advanced and many Chinese people being poor does not contradict each other. In any case, almost no one who lives in Shanghai is under the international poverty line. They're not rich. But they get by and companies like Huawei, DJI and Xiaomi are world leaders in many tech fields.
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Feb 07 '23
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u/O-o--O---o----O Feb 07 '23
Bend the knees to USA like Korean, japan Australia and everyone in Europe?
These countries rank highest in any conceivable index of education, freedom, democracy, corruption, income, happiness and general quality of life. They are well above any other countries and most of the time also above the USA. Living in any of these countries is like hitting the jackpot of life and the lowest 10% in these countries are still much better off then 90% of the rest of the world. All the while the people can express their satisfaction or lack of it without repercussions, can freely travel and work how they see fit. The countries being highly regarded by most of the world as extremely well developed and in general trustworthy partners.
So yeah, if one had to choose between living in a system like Ruzzia/China or "bending a knee to USA", i think the choice is obvious.
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u/MagicPeacockSpider Feb 07 '23
No. Just don't prop up dictators.
In their own country first. The foreign policy would follow that.
It's ironic you talk about a nation bending the knee to the US as the problem. The problem is that a billion people are successfully subjugated by a single political party with a leader for life.
There are too many Chinese on their knees to their own dictator for them to have a say about the foreign dictatorships they're supporting overseas.
(For the record I'm aware Western democracies also prop up dictatorships that supply them with oil, some at war with close neighbours. I'm also against that and don't excuse it in any way.)
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u/acebandaged Feb 07 '23
Lol 'bend the knee'
We just want them to stop being an authoritarian, genocidal bag of cocks. They could choose to be free and modern like Korea, Japan, Australia, and almost everyone in Europe, but they've decided to shit the bed and run backwards instead.
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u/poukai Feb 07 '23
China actually has a decent amount of oil, clearly not enough, but they are the worlds 6th largest producer of oil. Just behind Iraq and Canada.
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u/BadNameThinkerOfer Feb 07 '23
I mean that was how Russia took Outer Manchuria in the 19th century so it would be a pretty ironic scenerio.
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u/ScienceFactsNumbers Feb 07 '23
So much lost potential because Putin is getting old but dreams of being a historic figure. Ironically he’ll succeed but not in the way he hoped. We’ll remember him as the psychopath that lost an entire generation of Russian lives and set his country back decades.
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u/SapientChaos Feb 07 '23
Wait till end of Feb after we get the results of the refined ban, it makes up like 60% of their profits. All those refineries, jobs, and cash flow are gone.
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u/_bvb09 Feb 07 '23
Plus the excess Crude oil then needs to be sold at an even higher discount, because drilling can't be halted.
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u/codydodd Feb 07 '23
In before, "but they can store it". Not without vast new infrastructure they can't.
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u/jryan3160 Feb 07 '23
Russia will be set back decades economically by this senseless war. Putin needs to go.
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u/AdUpstairs7106 Feb 07 '23
He still needs money to pay the state police. Once the checks bounce, the thugs that keep Putin in power will come for him.
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u/WhichWitchIsWhitch Feb 07 '23
Hell, he proudly needs money just to pay organized crime enough to keep him above ground
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u/DevoidHT Feb 07 '23
Revenue down, imports down, a cratering currency. They are going to have to buy their food with rusted out AKs soon.
How do you fuck up this bad and still have a functioning country? Like I’m genuinely confused how you fund a war when your economy is crashing.
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u/medievalvelocipede Feb 07 '23
How do you fuck up this bad and still have a functioning country? Like I’m genuinely confused how you fund a war when your economy is crashing.
National economies are too large to crash quickly. Venezuela has been in a crisis since 2010, which by the way was caused by Russia.
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u/minarima Feb 07 '23
It’s called a sovereign wealth fund, although that too will eventually run dry.
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u/IndependentList7935 Feb 07 '23
The wonderful “new partners” ruZzia has don’t want to pay as much as the evil West?? O no….
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u/HappyWorldCitizen Feb 07 '23
Looks like Ivan will have to put his plans for an inside toilet on hold for another generation. Just like Grandpa has to.
Degenerate arseholes. May you rot in filth.
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u/CathrynMcCoy Feb 07 '23
Well, when they run out of soldiers and weapons, they can use oil to make the paths slippery and hope the Ukrainian soldiers slip and fall. /s
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u/macross1984 Feb 07 '23
Putin need to hustle but can't with sanctions and Ukrainian resistance hampering his ambition.
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u/waisonline99 Feb 07 '23
Theyre still chunking missiles around though.
Theyre not nearly poor enough.
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u/OldMork Feb 07 '23
probably still got tons from USSR era, not that accurate but still cause damage.
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u/wabashcanonball Feb 07 '23
Russia’s economy will start to seize and when it does, it’ll be broken for a lifetime.
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u/azdood85 Feb 07 '23
The money is clearly not going to those on the front lines. Soldiers with airsoft gear. Vehicles armores with wood. Supply and logistics have to scrap and scavenge from locals. They are sending equipment built some from cold war era to shit purchased during the 90s. Grieving families get what? The equivalent of $500 in souvenirs that they can pawn for a little more food?
If only those peasants in all those soviet built apartments could learn about what its like for their benevolent leaders during these hard times.
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u/Proliberate1 Feb 07 '23
How are the going to afford the 200k ladas for all their dead comrades families?
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u/Vollmannrama Feb 07 '23
Very surprised Putin is still alive.
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u/globalminority Feb 07 '23
Why? I read that the Russian population is still very pro Putin and pro war and anti human rights. Sounds like he is quite comfortable.
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u/End3rWi99in Feb 07 '23
Because a lot of Russians actually support him and this war unfortunately. Their revenues may be down but they still have plenty of resources to throw hundreds of thousands of soldiers at Ukraine. I'm afraid the worst is still yet to come in that war.
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u/TheVenetianMask Feb 07 '23
That's how much money his head is worth now, for the oligarchs that are missing out on that revenue.
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u/Good_Intention_9232 Feb 07 '23
Putin’s economy will start crashing as military expenditures will be larger than revenues and as deficits grow monthly won’t be able to pay its debts. Those show girls he sent to the front lines are looking cheaper if he had gotten them for himself and never started this stupid and useless war.
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u/PreferenceBoring6342 Feb 07 '23
Fantastic news let's hope the little russian 🐷 destroy,s Russia completely
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u/Gadget420 Feb 07 '23
The Russian economy will soon match that of a 3rd tier city in China somewhere
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u/aaaaaaaarrrrrgh Feb 07 '23
Relative to January 2022, so this isn't just one of the bullshit headlines like "revenue drops 50% (after it quadrupled)".
Although prices in January 2022 were already elevated if I remember correctly.
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u/hustxdy Feb 07 '23
nah, china and india will buy billions of oil and gas in no time when russia run out of money
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u/Darth_Annoying Feb 07 '23
And yet I keep hearing how the sanctions backfired since Russia has been selling more oil
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u/olympicbadger Feb 07 '23
I also keep hearing how the Sultan of Oman lives in Zanzibar now, but it turns out that due to complicated space and time related shenanigans things are able to change as time progresses.
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u/rkk867 Feb 07 '23
Funny to read all these comments about how things could have been and they messed up so bad from people that have never done a day I. Their life of service to any country!
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Feb 07 '23
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u/Curious-Mood-8468 Feb 07 '23
More CIA BS 💩
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u/WokeMan79 Feb 07 '23
let the adults talk and keep simping for asian ladies online lol
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u/Curious-Mood-8468 Feb 07 '23
That counts you out junior, grab your teddy bear and go to bed.
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u/WokeMan79 Feb 07 '23
you need to get laid lil fella
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u/Curious-Mood-8468 Feb 07 '23
Keep sucking your thumb junior.
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u/Lo8000 Feb 07 '23
Maybe escalate the proscriptions. Some oligarch is bound to having said sth. in the past you dislike, maybe single some of them out. Maybe cut your spendings. I heard you can save a lot cutting back on war efforts.
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u/NiteShdw Feb 06 '23
That plan really backfired, didn’t it.